And the award for costliest early blunder goes to... (Nick Dynan for WBUR)

Todd Domke and I have analyzed this season’s statewide and congressional races at ElectionWire. Along the way, certain events and people deserve special recognition in my first-ever Wirees.

BEST FREUDIAN DECREE. The front of a mailer for Worcester County Sheriff Guy Glodis’ campaign for auditor contained a colossal and telling slip. A Guy known to mix political money, office money, friends’ money and his own money, Glodis promised to “reign [sic] in wasteful political spending.” His pledge to be Lord of Squandered Public Funds was cut short when he lost the primary.

DUMBEST COMMERCIAL. (Multiple winners) All the phony slice-of-life radio ads. Top prize goes to Tim Cahill’s ad with a “real” woman saying, “My mother loves you!” What’s to love? Honorable mention to Suzanne Bump for “real people” chatting knowledgeably, in ways normal people don’t talk, about Bump’s credentials for the auditor’s job. No mention of Bump’s embarrassing tax ploy.

MOST DISTURBING PERFORMANCE. Republican Mary Z. Connaughton said, “I am the only professional auditor running for auditor” about six straight times on NECN’s “Broadside,” even when repeatedly asked for a yes-or-no answer. Very creepy.
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Water Street Cafe owner P.J. O'Hanley makes bacon on Monday morning. (Kirk Carapezza for WBUR)

The Water Street Cafe in downtown Plymouth, where WBUR’s Morning Edition broadcast live this morning, has become a must-stop along many campaign trails.

Owner P.J. O’Hanley says that’s because his cafe is known as a joint that is constantly packed with Plymouth locals. O’Hanley says in recent elections candidates for all levels of government have come by to press palms — from state Rep. Vinny DeMacedo, R-Plymouth, to Sen. Scott Brown.

“When (former state Treasurer) Joe Malone came here, he told me that he had to visit because everyone who stops by gets elected,” O’Hanley said.

O’Hanley won’t make a prediction for the tight race for the 10th Congressional District, which includes Plymouth, but he noted that Republican Jeff Perry stumped last month at his Water Street Cafe, while Democrat Bill Keating stayed away.

Members of the Plymouth chapter of the League of Women Voters at Water Street Cafe (Kirk Carapezza for WBUR)

The breakfast crowd built all morning for our special broadcast today from the Water Street Cafe in downtown Plymouth. And much of the breakfast-table talk centered on politics.

The cafe, located in the middle of this bellwether town, was representative of what pundits are saying about the state’s big contest. Most consider the gubernatorial race between Republican Charlie Baker and Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick a toss-up. This morning, we found the same here.

“Patrick has done a decent job in a difficult time,” said Steve Mattern, an IT manager here in town. “Our state isn’t in as bad a state as other states financially. He’s had a difficult time with the Legislature but I think he’s done a good enough job to go back.”

But Jeannette McKay, a retired service representative with Bank of America, is backing Baker, in part because she’s frustrated with fat government pensions.

She’s upset about “working 50 years and getting one-third of what other people are getting in the public sector,” she said.

In the early morning dark, WBUR's David Boeri, left, and Bob Oakes broadcast from Water Street Cafe in Plymouth the day before Election Day. (Kirk Carapezza for WBUR)

Sitting in front of the big bay window here, above the din of clinking coffee cups, WBUR’s Morning Edition is broadcasting today from Plymouth’s Water Street Cafe, where we’re hearing report after report of candidates furiously trying to rally supporters and convince discontented voters.

The broadcast has been full of conversations with WBUR reporters both on campaign trails and here in the cafe. Here’s a sampling:

• David Boeri — who else? — went trick-or-treating in a Quincy neighborhood last night. He found signs of trouble for Democratic incumbents, invoking the Grim Reaper.
• Fred Thys and Anthony Brooks have been trailing the two leading candidates for governor. They found Republican Charlie Baker and Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick conveying two distinct messages.
• Deb Becker checked in with a report on the 4th Congressional District, where newcomer Republican Sean Bielat is stressing American values and Democratic Rep. Barney Frank is talking up his record.
• Curt Nickisch has been following the quieter ballot question campaigns, as supporters and opponents of the three have taken to the streets in shoe-leather politics style.

That’s just a sampling of the morning. See our Plymouth special broadcast page for more.

WBUR photojournalists are following the candidates as they travel across Massachusetts. Keep checking back for new images in this continuously updated photo gallery.

The two leading candidates for Massachusetts governor, Democratic incumbent Gov. Deval Patrick and Republican Charlie Baker, embarked on statewide bus tours in the final weekend before Election Day. This map shows where they traveled.

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The two leading candidates for Massachusetts governor crisscrossed the state again today, continuing their weekend bus tours. Photographer Nick Dynan caught up with the campaigns at stops in Medford and Beverly.

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Plymouth Rock is "a stone's throw" from WBUR's broadcast location on Monday, Nov. 1.

Is Plymouth the state’s bellwether community? In three recent elections, the town has seesawed politically, and each time it has voted for the winner. In 2002, it went Republican for former Gov. Mitt Romney. In 2006, it went Democratic for Gov. Deval Patrick. And in January, it went Republican again for Sen. Scott Brown.

So what about this Tuesday? With Plymouth’s voters about to cast ballots for the even gubernatorial race and the even 10th Congressional District race, WBUR’s Morning Edition is broadcasting live from the town tomorrow to get a better sense of their electoral thoughts. ElectionWire will be there, too.

• Hubbub: 2 Very Different Rallies In The 10th

Gov. Deval Patrick greets supporters in Medford on Sunday. Rep. Ed Markey, of the 7th district, is behind the governor. (Nick Dynan for WBUR)

The two leading candidates for governor are back on the road today.

After hitting a number of stops on their statewide bus tours Saturday, Republican Charlie Baker and Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick are back at it this Halloween day, hoping to both rally supporters to the ballot booths and convince undecided voters that they’d be the best choice on Tuesday.

Traveling with his running mate, state Sen. Richard Tisei, and former Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling, Baker has planned stops in Chelmsford, Haverhill and Beverly. As the AP noted, “in stumping with Schilling, Baker is lifting a page from the political playbook of Republican Sen. Scott Brown, who also enlisted the World Series ace.” Brown stumped for Baker yesterday.

Patrick’s schedule includes stops in Medford, Peabody and Burlington, before ending in his hometown of Milton.
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Though Republicans still trail Democratic opponents, congressional races in the 4th and 10th districts have tightened over the last few weeks, according to updated ratings from national forecasters.

On Oct. 12 I took a trip around the Web to see what handicappers were seeing for our races here. I found mostly blue maps. Now, with two days until Election Day, the maps reveal modest GOP gains.

Here's how Cook saw our congressional contests on Oct. 12. (The Cook Political Report)

4th Congressional District

Republican Sean Bielat has narrowed the once-vast gap behind Democratic Rep. Barney Frank, the forecasters say. On Oct. 12, the New York Times had the race as “solid Democratic;” now, it “leans Democratic.” From “safe Democratic,” CQ Politics now calls it “likely Democratic.” Real Clear Politics similarly downgraded it from “likely Democratic” to “leans Democratic.” On Oct. 11, the Cook Political Report changed the race from “solid Democratic” to “likely Democratic.” It’s since gone one step further, to “leans Democratic.”

...And here's how Cook forecasts these races now.

FiveThirtyEight had Frank with a 29-point advantage in mid-September. Now, it’s a 15-point lead. But the forecaster still gives the incumbent a 97 percent chance of victory.

10th Congressional District

The ratings show similar GOP gains in the open race between Republican Jeff Perry and Democrat Bill Keating. Less than three weeks ago, Cook, CQ and the New York Times all had the contest as “leans Democratic.” Now, the three outfits say it’s a “toss-up.” FiveThirtyEight now gives Keating a 57 percent chance of winning. It gave him a 75 percent chance a few weeks ago.

It’s unclear how much the 10th’s ratings are affected by the 1990s strip search scandal that continues to dog Perry’s campaign. On Oct. 20, a victim of one of the incidents released a statement saying Perry “should not be in a position of power.” FiveThirtyEight’s Oct. 22 model then showed Keating increase his chance of winning to 91 percent. That percentage has since come down significantly.

5th, 6th Districts; Governor’s Race

Two individual examples also point to slight GOP gains in the 5th and 6th districts. In the last few weeks, CQ has changed the 5th from “safe Democratic” to “likely Democratic.” Similarly, Cook has downgraded the 6th district from “solid Democratic” to “likely Democratic.”

The governor’s contest is one race that has essentially remained unchanged over the last few weeks. It’s still mostly considered a “toss-up” between Republican Charlie Baker and Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick. Two outfits have it “tilting” or “leaning Democratic,” respectively. FiveThirtyEight has increased Patrick’s chance of winning from 75 percent to 80 percent.

Top Election 2010 stories this Sunday morning:

Up And Down The Ballot, GOP Is Dreaming Big

The Boston Globe reports: Not since 1990, when fiscal and political chaos gripped Beacon Hill, has such potential existed for major Republican gains up and down the ticket. For the first time in years, the party is making spirited challenges for statewide constitutional offices, several of the state’s 10 congressional seats, and in dozens of legislative districts.

Further:

• Uncertainty Rules (Worcester T&G)
• Fed Up: Merrimack Valley Voters Say Their Anger Will Guide Them (Lawrence Eagle-Tribune)

Governor’s race:

Confidence, Anxiety As Vote Looms

The Boston Globe reports: Nearly everyone in both (leading gubernatorial) camps acknowledged some anxiety about the close race and said turnout will decide who wins. Each side is convinced it has the edge — Republicans because of more enthusiastic voters, Democrats because of their massive ground operation.

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The Massachusetts State House (snowriderguy/flickr)

The Massachusetts Legislature will experience greater-than-normal turnover this election season, though its party makeup is not expected to change much, according to Kyle Cheney of State House News Service.

Cheney says 20-25 seats typically change hands every election. This year, however, 35 seats — eight in the Senate, 27 in the House — are open and 80 incumbents face challengers. And while state legislators historically fare quite well in re-election races, Cheney doesn’t think we’ll see a repeat of 2008 — a year in which no incumbent lost in the general election.

“I doubt that trend will hold this time around,” Cheney told me in an e-mail, “based on the reports we’re hearing about tough races for members on both sides of the aisle.”

Though many incumbents face challenging contests, House Speaker Robert DeLeo told SHNS that broad anti-incumbent sentiment does not appear to be gripping Beacon Hill races.

“People may not be happy with the direction of government at large,” Cheney said, “but (DeLeo) seems to think that the members of the House have been active enough in their districts to fend off the reflexive anti-incumbent vote.”

Another political narrative that appears likely to bypass the Legislature is the Republican wave expected for U.S. Congress. Cheney thinks a few seats might switch sides, but that’s it.

“Whatever the outcome, it doesn’t seem like the balance of power would shift significantly,” he said, “and no one’s talking about Democrats losing their veto-proof majority in either branch.”

Cheney has his eye on a few races. He cited Rep. Katherine Clark, D-Melrose, as she faces Republican Craig Spadafora to fill the seat left open by Sen. Richard Tisei. Tisei is currently the Republican candidate for lieutenant governor. He also mentioned “a bruising race” between Rep. Jim Fagan, D-Taunton, and Republican Shaunna O’Connell, and that Senate President Therese Murray is spending a lot of money to beat back Republican challenger Thomas Keyes in Plymouth.

Bill Keating, the Democratic nominee in the 10th Congressional District, speaks at a rally Saturday in Quincy. Behind Keating are Sen. John Kerry, left, and Vice President Joe Biden, center. (Andrew Phelps/WBUR)

“Get out the vote weekend” is upon us, with candidates for congressional seats and state offices staging political rallies across Massachusetts today.

Vice President Joe Biden headlined a Quincy rally this afternoon for Norfolk County District Attorney Bill Keating, the Democratic candidate locked in a tight race for the open 10th district.

Bucking popular consensus, the vice president said he is bullish on Democratic chances on Tuesday. Here’s Biden, from the AP:

I have been in over 109 races now, and I want to tell you, we are going to maintain the Senate, we are going to have a majority in the House, and Bill Keating’s going to be part of that majority.

Vicki Kennedy, the widow of former Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, Sen. John Kerry and the outgoing Rep. Bill Delahunt also appeared in Quincy, where Delahunt “said the best way to honor him is to allow him to pass the baton to Keating,” according to the AP.

The Boston Globe caught up with Keating’s Republican opponent, Rep. Jeff Perry, with Outer Cape supporters in Orleans this morning:

“I’m feeling great, I really am,” Perry said as he waved to drivers. “The energy that’s around the campaign is just palpable. It reminds me of January before Scott Brown was elected.”

Sen. Scott Brown, left, and other Massachusetts Republicans, including gubernatorial candidate Charlie Baker, center, appear at a rally in Foxborough on Saturday. (Dominic Reuter for WBUR)

Brown himself today headlined a rally with several Republicans — including candidate for governor Charlie Baker and 4th district candidate Sean Bielat — in Foxborough. Here’s Brown, from the AP:

You have an opportunity, right now, in a couple of days, to send a very, very powerful message. That you’re tired of the three speakers that have been indicted. That you’re tired of the senator putting money down her shirt. You’re tired of the overspending, the overtaxation, the complete lack of attention to the one thing that can get us going again, and that’s jobs.

Both Baker and Gov. Deval Patrick are embarking on statewide bus tours to rally supporters. Independent candidate for governor Tim Cahill is also touring Massachusetts with supporters.

(AP)

Where does Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick stand on job creation? What about Republican challenger Charlie Baker on health care?

Yesterday we in the WBUR Newsroom put together an interactive graphic identifying where the four candidates for governor — Patrick, Baker, independent Tim Cahill and Green-Rainbow Party candidate Jill Stein — stand on six pertinent issues — jobs, health care, immigration and the state’s three ballot questions.

We culled the information from WBUR reporting, the three debates WBUR co-hosted or moderated and the campaigns themselves. We also link to debates, candidate interviews and feature reports below the interactive graphic. Check it out here.

Top Election 2010 stories this Saturday morning:

Challenge Pushes Frank Into Overdrive

The Boston Globe reports: On the defensive for his role in the financial crisis and battling a tide of anger at entrenched politicians, the 70-year-old (Rep. Barney) Frank has been forced to run full bore for the first time in years, and he is crisscrossing the district to fortify his long-standing base.

GOP Pushes For Votes To The Last

The Boston Globe reports: …Jon Golnik bounded into a senior center, hunting for the votes he needs to topple a Democratic incumbent with one of the most famous last names in (Lowell), US Representative Niki Tsongas.

Further: Star Power For GOP In 5th (Lowell Sun)

Mass. Women Favor Dems

The Attleboro Sun Chronicle reports: National polls shows the advantage Democrats have with women voters might be slipping because of the bad economy, but in Massachusetts the old alliance appears to holding.

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