Ratings, Revisited: Republicans Make Modest Late Gains

Though Republicans still trail Democratic opponents, congressional races in the 4th and 10th districts have tightened over the last few weeks, according to updated ratings from national forecasters.

On Oct. 12 I took a trip around the Web to see what handicappers were seeing for our races here. I found mostly blue maps. Now, with two days until Election Day, the maps reveal modest GOP gains.

Here's how Cook saw our congressional contests on Oct. 12. (The Cook Political Report)

4th Congressional District

Republican Sean Bielat has narrowed the once-vast gap behind Democratic Rep. Barney Frank, the forecasters say. On Oct. 12, the New York Times had the race as “solid Democratic;” now, it “leans Democratic.” From “safe Democratic,” CQ Politics now calls it “likely Democratic.” Real Clear Politics similarly downgraded it from “likely Democratic” to “leans Democratic.” On Oct. 11, the Cook Political Report changed the race from “solid Democratic” to “likely Democratic.” It’s since gone one step further, to “leans Democratic.”

...And here's how Cook forecasts these races now.

FiveThirtyEight had Frank with a 29-point advantage in mid-September. Now, it’s a 15-point lead. But the forecaster still gives the incumbent a 97 percent chance of victory.

10th Congressional District

The ratings show similar GOP gains in the open race between Republican Jeff Perry and Democrat Bill Keating. Less than three weeks ago, Cook, CQ and the New York Times all had the contest as “leans Democratic.” Now, the three outfits say it’s a “toss-up.” FiveThirtyEight now gives Keating a 57 percent chance of winning. It gave him a 75 percent chance a few weeks ago.

It’s unclear how much the 10th’s ratings are affected by the 1990s strip search scandal that continues to dog Perry’s campaign. On Oct. 20, a victim of one of the incidents released a statement saying Perry “should not be in a position of power.” FiveThirtyEight’s Oct. 22 model then showed Keating increase his chance of winning to 91 percent. That percentage has since come down significantly.

5th, 6th Districts; Governor’s Race

Two individual examples also point to slight GOP gains in the 5th and 6th districts. In the last few weeks, CQ has changed the 5th from “safe Democratic” to “likely Democratic.” Similarly, Cook has downgraded the 6th district from “solid Democratic” to “likely Democratic.”

The governor’s contest is one race that has essentially remained unchanged over the last few weeks. It’s still mostly considered a “toss-up” between Republican Charlie Baker and Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick. Two outfits have it “tilting” or “leaning Democratic,” respectively. FiveThirtyEight has increased Patrick’s chance of winning from 75 percent to 80 percent.