The Red ‘Brown Map’ Sets Congressional Challenges

The red towns went for Sen. Scott Brown in January (AP)

Call it the “Scott Brown map effect.”

Massachusetts is now a post-Sen. Brown state. And while we’ve certainly elected Republicans before (just look at the recent Corner Office-occupants), the red that marked Brown’s electoral map in January surprised a state that previously had an all-blue Democratic congressional delegation. The election caused Todd Domke to wonder, “Will Massachusetts turn purple?”

The mostly-red Brown map from our last election is coloring campaigns — and what we voters and reporters expect — this election. We’ve heard about the Republican-Democratic “enthusiasm gap” and the coming GOP wave on Nov. 2, but the state’s Democratic congressmen are well-known and well-financed. Here, these contrasting factors make it somewhat hard to tell how truly challenging challengers will be come Election Day.

Which brings me to today’s Morning Edition conversations with three political reporters from across the state. Discussing four congressional races, the reporters kept mentioning the Brown election — and the Brown map. It’s the common theme as we all prepare for next Tuesday’s returns.

The 5th district has “always had a tinge of anti-incumbency,” said Matt Murphy, of State House News Service. And though Republican Jon Golnik just released a relatively introductory TV ad and has struggled to raise money in his campaign against Rep. Niki Tsongas, Murphy said Brown took 20 of the district’s 29 communities, including Lowell and Haverhill, which he said “tend to be Democratic strongholds.”

For the 1st and 2nd districts, WBUR spoke with Ben Storrow, of Northampton’s Daily Hampshire Gazette. Morrow said Republican William Gunn represents Rep. John Olver’s “most serious” recent challenger, but cited that the district — which went heavily for Martha Coakley — is arguably the most liberal in the state.

Storrow also used the Brown map to speak about Rep. Richie Neal’s 2nd district race against Republican Tom Wesley. While Neal has a massive money edge and brings resources home, Storrow noted that it’s a district — with the exception of Springfield — that went largely for Brown.

For the 3rd, Worcester Magazine’s Jeremy Shulkin didn’t cite the Brown map but said Marty Lamb has a “spirited” campaign that’s gaining as the Republican tries to unseat Rep. Jim McGovern. Shulkin debunked a misleading political action committee ad against McGovern and said the incumbent still has the edge, but added, “I know that his campaign kind of has some fears.”