Cahill Campaign: What Went Wrong?

Independent gubernatorial candidate Tim Cahill speaks during the WBZ-AM debate on Tuesday. (AP)

It is way too early to write a post-mortem for Tim Cahill’s independent candidacy for governor. So I’ll write a pre-mortem.

What was the cause of his demise?

He started out as a real contender, with $3 million in his campaign account. As state treasurer, he was well-known and had proven to be formidable in past campaigns. Plus, half of voters are “unenrolled” and seemed ready to roll with an independent.

But right from the beginning, Cahill’s candidacy never took off. The idea was intriguing — an independent with lots of money, plenty of name ID and top political consultants from both parties.

But then…

Quarreling Strategists. Apparently having both Republican and Democratic political consultants was not a good idea. They could not agree on whether he should appeal to the center-right or center-left or right-left, so he ended up having little appeal to anyone. He has had no clear strategy, no coherent message, no compelling theme, no powerful ads and no credible rationale for running, except ambition.

Conflicting Constituencies. In business and sports, “opportunistic” has become a positive term — meaning, to seize opportunities. In politics, it’s still a pejorative — it means to do what is expedient instead of what’s principled. Cahill has been opportunistic as a career politician, and his base in the Democratic Party has been those who appreciate his loyalty to friends and supporters — i.e. patronage, doing favors, giving special treatment to donors.

But early in this campaign, his advisors saw an opportunity to broaden his base by having him woo Tea Party supporters, so he appeared on the Glenn Beck show to denounce ObamaCare and RomneyCare. His epiphany came late, but most conservatives didn’t mind. A convert was a convert. But then he was in a quandary. How could he win the support of Tea Party supporters — angry taxpayers who were sick of career politicians — and still remain the Old School pol who explained, “I’m not passing myself off as a reformer or as a good government guy”?

Failing To Counterattack. When the Republican Governors Association ran $2 million-worth of attack ads — TV, radio, mail, online — against him, Cahill’s response was, in effect, to duck and hide. His campaign came up with a lame Web video and he complained to the press about the unfairness of an out-of-state group defaming him by showing unflattering headlines from news articles, but his failure to advertise a rebuttal was his real answer. He apparently had faith that voters would ignore or forget charges that he was guilty of mismanagement and malfeasance. The polls soon proved him wrong. His support collapsed and he’s been a distant third ever since.

Boring Candidate. While Cahill’s campaign failed to develop a coherent strategy or creative tactics, ultimately it was the candidate who failed to inspire. He came across as a likable guy — “nice enough,” as Barack Obama said of Hillary Clinton in one of their 2008 debates. But he didn’t seem all that enthusiastic about his own candidacy and he didn’t convince people that he’d be a true independent.

Indeed, many suspect that if he won, he’d re-join the Democratic Party and continue to practice “politics as usual.” That suspicion deepened when he announced he was voting in the recent Democratic primary. (In fairness, we can’t expect him to pledge that he’d never join a political party again. After all, being an independent in Massachusetts is different. You don’t hear voters say, “I’m proud to be unenrolled! That is a platform I believe in!”)

But is it fair to write off Cahill this early? Theoretically, we shouldn’t. But realistically, his own strategists probably have written him off. If that’s not true, they should put their own reputations on the line and do some media interviews, explaining why he will win.

In the meantime, let’s not resort to the clichĂ© that Cahill is “the walking dead.” After all, he’s still running. And zombies are far more popular than career politicians.

Related:

• Poll: Patrick Ahead In ‘Toss Up,’ Cahill Falls Far Back