Re-elected Gov. Deval Patrick, on Nov. 3. (AP)

The flood of election stories naturally slowed once ballots were counted, but some things trickled out over the weekend. As a way of closing the chapter on Election 2010, here’s a roundup. In case you missed it…

A few outlets put numbers to the “Scott Brown effect” we debated last week. In its Nov. 4 survey, MassINC polled Brown’s performance in comparison to gubernatorial challenger and fellow Republican Charlie Baker:

Baker was further hindered by the fraying of the coalition that delivered Scott Brown to victory in January. Baker succeeded in pulling nearly all (95 percent) of Brown’s Republican supporters. However, he was less successful at drawing in Brown’s Democrat and unenrolled supporters, losing 26 percent of this group…

In a compelling town-by-town chart, the Boston Globe too outlined this “voting shift” between Brown and Baker. “In nearly ever town,” the chart leads, “… Baker earned a smaller share of the vote … than Brown.” Revere, for one, swung 10 percentage points, voting for Brown in January and Gov. Deval Patrick last week. Even towns that remained red, like Plymouth, voted for Baker in smaller numbers.

There has been a lot of analysis on what went right for Patrick… and what went wrong for Baker. Again, the MassINC poll:
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The wipeout of Republican candidates in Massachusetts was discouraging. But it’s also discouraging to read and hear defeatist comments from Republicans who condemn the voters as ignorant and blame all losses on an invincible Democratic turn-out “machine.”

My thesis is very different.

I believe that many of our state GOP candidates, consultants and campaign operatives did not draw the right lessons from Scott Brown’s Senate victory. Yes, his victory came out of a “perfect storm.” He was the right man in the right place at the right time with the right opponent. But his winning formula was still applicable for many Republican challenger candidates in this climate.

What was the winning formula for Brown that other GOP candidates failed to emulate?

INDEPENDENT. Brown emphasized in speeches and ads that he was an independent guy. He didn’t pretend he wasn’t a Republican, but he stressed that he was independent-minded and would try to represent the people in that spirit. Fifty-two percent of the state’s electorate is unenrolled. Yet some GOP candidates this election season ran as blatant partisans. For example, the night of his primary victory when he was delivering a speech televised widely, state Rep. Jeff Perry, running for Congress in the 10th district, excoriated the entire Democratic Party, saying it rejected the Constitution. How does that appeal to conservative Democrats and undecided independents? Despite winning, Perry sounded threatening. Brown never did that; he sounded conciliatory instead. For example, he stressed that he wanted to go to Washington and work in a bipartisan way to start all over on health care reform.
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Sen. Scott Brown, left, shakes hands with Republican gubernatorial candidate Charlie Baker during a campaign event on Saturday. Auditor candidate Mary Z. Connaughton, another Republican who lost Tuesday, is center. (AP)

Even though he was not on the ballot Tuesday, Sen. Scott Brown still played a starring role in this election and the analysis that has followed.

With his January shocker over Martha Coakley, Brown became the catalyst for Republican energy and the reason behind Democratic fears in Massachusetts. On the campaign trail, his was the coveted endorsement and his appearances triggered e-blasts to supporters. Media, too, judged candidates’ chances on the very red Brown map: “Well, historically this is a Democratic area, but Brown got this percentage there…” The “Scott Brown effect” was thought perhaps to have turned a blue state purple.

But then Tuesday happened. Coakley, considered by some to be running against the “ghost of Scott Brown,” won her attorney general’s race an hour after polls closed. After stumping for Charlie Baker over the weekend, Brown never showed up at the Election Night rally for losing Republican gubernatorial challenger. Instead, Brown went to a rally for auditor candidate Mary Z. Connaughton, who was locked in the tightest race of any top-ticket Republican. (She lost, too.) With the exception of the Legislature, Massachusetts has turned “midnight blue” again.

Tuesday’s results have driven the post-election narrative. Said Todd Domke in his insta-analysis, “We’re back to our pre-Sen. Scott Brown reputation as hopelessly liberal and a bastion of the Democratic Party.” Dan Payne put it more bluntly: “Massachusetts tonight proved that Sen. Scott Brown’s victory in January was more fluke than the leading edge of a trend.” This morning, a feature report from WBUR’s Monica Brady-Myerov asked, “Is the ‘Scott Brown effect’ fading?”

You have weighed, too, and you’re skeptical that there was, or is, a “Scott Brown effect” at all.
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Now two days after Election Day, there’s looking back to do: what happened at the polls, and why? And there’s looking ahead to do, too: what do the voting results mean for Massachusetts, and what will the winners (and losers) do now? Today’s top election stories follow that divide.

Patrick Begins Plans For Second Term

WBUR reports: Less than 24 hours after securing his second term, Gov. Deval Patrick insisted he will serve all four years — but that this term is his last.

Further:

• Listen: Patrick: No 1. Goal Is ‘Getting People Back To Work’ (WBUR)
• Patrick Limits Agenda, Says He’ll Make Final Term Count (Boston Globe)
• Patrick: I’m No Lame Duck! (Boston Herald)
• Patrick Says Casino Bill In Hands Of Legislature (Springfield Republican)
• His Dream Unfulfilled, Baker Still Has Numerous Options (Boston Globe)

Is The ‘Scott Brown Effect’ Fading?

WBUR reports: … voters rejected Brown’s suggestion to shake up the status quo. Every Republican candidate for Congress and those running for statewide office lost. The GOP did pick up seats in the House on Beacon Hill, but lost one in the Senate. Still, the chair of the state’s Republican Party doesn’t see the races as a total defeat.

Further:

• Chart: The Voting Shift Between Brown And Baker (Boston Globe)
• Democrats Say Hopes Rise Of Beating Brown (Boston Globe)

For Democrats, Door-To-Door Did Trick

The Boston Globe reports: Massachusetts Democratic Party chairman John Walsh said the strategy was born in the aftermath of Democrat Martha Coakley’s loss to Brown in the January special Senate election. Late in the campaign, Coakley foundered and Brown surged, and Democrats failed to get their supporters to the polls.

Further:

• Blog: Patrick’s (Grass)Roots Are Showing (Boston Phoenix)
• Canvassing Was Key To Dems’ Wins, Says Party Chief (Boston Globe)
• Turnout Told Tale For State Democrats (Boston Globe)

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Gov. Deval Patrick and his wife, Diane, at their Election Night victory party (Dominick Reuter for WBUR)

Defying the voter anger that tossed out so many incumbents this election season, Gov. Deval Patrick today credited his optimistic message for his impressive re-election victory.

“I think that the message … of this election is that an optimistic campaign with a plan to back it up is a winning campaign and winning political strategy,” Patrick said to media in his corner office.

Throughout the campaign, we documented the difference in tone between Patrick and Republican Charlie Baker. Patrick was more personal, more empathetic. He took the glass half-full approach. Baker, on the other hand, tried to tap into the voter anger narrative, and said he was the leader to turn things around, like he did at Harvard Pilgrim.

Here’s how State House News Service put it:

On the campaign trail, Patrick frequently spoke about how the voters he encountered were not “angry, but scared.” … Baker, in contrast, adopted the tone of a frustrated voter with his “Had Enough?” message.

Our Democratic analyst, Dan Payne, asked this a week before the election:

Would you rather put your faith in a governor who sees hope and a brighter future, or do you choose a candidate who sees government as purely numbers and believes Massachusetts is on the conveyor belt to economic hell?

Over-the-top, yes, but it’s a distinction of tone the governor consciously tapped into throughout his campaign. And Massachusetts voters have put their faith in Patrick once again.

Update: The interview has been posted.

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Bill Keating, during his 10th district victory speech (AP)

A programming note from the WBUR studios: Democrat Bill Keating, fresh off his victory last night in the 10th Congressional District, will be on Radio Boston today at 3 p.m.

The congressman-elect fended off Republican Jeff Perry in the state’s closest congressional race. Keating won by 4.5 percentage points. The next closest congressional contest was 10.5 points.

WBUR’s David Boeri was with Keating last night. Before this election, the tide seemed to be going out on Democrats down on the South Shore and Cape Cod. But the Republican wave never materialized:

The tony and Republican-tilting towns of Cohasset and Hingham came in for Keating, the Democrat. He took Falmouth, too, and Plymouth. It was tight all right. But Keating was confident in his field operation to get out the vote.

Despite strong GOP challenges in some districts, Massachusetts’ U.S. congressional delegation remains all blue. Democrats won all statewide races and maintained wide majorities in the state Legislature.

Where, if anywhere, did Republicans make gains?

The GOP picked up 16 seats in the House, doubling their ranks, to 32, but continue to represent a small minority in the 160-member body. The GOP lost a seat in the state Senate, down to 4 of 40 seats.

What about all races — county sheriffs, governor’s councillors, state senators — all of ‘em?

Of the 447 races in Massachusetts, 338 were contested. (In the remaining 109, the winning candidate was unopposed.)

Of those 338 contests, just 18 winners were Republicans. That number could jump to 23, because Republicans are leading in five races that have not yet been called.

But you get the idea. A red tide swept over the nation last night — a tide arguably set in motion in January with the Senate election of Wrentham Republican Scott Brown. But GOP victories in Massachusetts represented a statistically insignificant 0.05 percent of the state’s total.

How blue were we on Election Day? Really blue. Midnight blue. Even the pundits didn’t see it coming.

Note: The Associated Press provided this data.

You know the results. Here are the reports. Top Election 2010 stories this Election Day-day-after:

Big Picture:

Republicans’ Revolution Fades In Massachusetts

The Boston Globe reports:… Ten months after (Sen. Scott Brown’s victory), Massachusetts turned decidedly blue again. All statewide elected offices, including a closely fought governor’s race, and the entire 10-member US House delegation remained in Democratic hands, despite a national tide that left Republicans celebrating large gains last night.

Further:

• Dan Payne: Blue Mass. Stands Apart From Nation
• Todd Domke: National GOP Wave Misses Mass.
• How It All Went Down: WBUR hosted a 14-hour live blog yesterday
• Your Election Night Winners
• Hubbub: Conversation 2010: What Do You Think?

Governor’s Race

Mass. Voters Give Patrick A Second Chance

WBUR reports: Voters are giving Gov. Deval Patrick four more years to work on the problems facing the state. Patrick eked out a narrow victory Tuesday night, earning less than 50 percent of the vote against his three opponents. His victory came in large part thanks to a tremendous grass-roots organization.

Further:

• Patrick Roars To 2d Term (Boston Globe)
• Cahill: ‘I Have No Regrets’ (Boston Herald)
• Patrick Rides Huge Margins In Cities (Springfield Republican)
• Slideshow: Patrick Wins Re-Election
• How Your Town Voted For Governor
• Big Picture View: What Obama Can Borrow From Deval Patrick (The Guardian)

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Gov. Deval Patrick declared victory in Boston. (Dominick Reuter for WBUR)

It’s turned Wednesday on Election Night, and as the last votes trickle in, here are your winners:

Governor:

(99 percent reporting) (Here’s how your town voted.)

• Gov. Deval Patrick (D) – 48.5 percent
• Charlie Baker (R) – 42 percent
• Tim Cahill (I) – 8.0 percent
• Jill Stein (G-R) – 1.4 percent

Attorney General

(99 percent reporting)

• Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) – 62.8 percent
• Jim McKenna (R) – 37.2 percent

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Massachusetts tonight proved that Sen. Scott Brown’s victory in January was more fluke than the leading edge of a trend. It’s a clean sweep for incumbents in Congress and an all-Democratic night for candidates for constitutional office.

Rep. Jeff Perry’s loss proves that Character trumps Ideology, as voters in the 10th district chose to believe the victim of a strip search rather than Perry’s account. Brown is going to have to relive his deep and abiding support for Perry in Brown’s re-election in 2012.
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The national GOP wave seems to have missed Massachusetts. We’re back to our pre-Sen. Scott Brown reputation as hopelessly liberal and a bastion of the Democratic Party.

State Democrats apparently learned some lessons from Brown’s upset victory in January. Gov. Deval Patrick’s campaign certainly became more focused, and the candidate worked harder campaigning. And their heavy investment in field organization — specifically get-out-the-vote operations — paid off. There was a statewide coordination and cooperation in Democratic campaigns that benefited some of the weaker candidates, including treasurer candidate Steve Grossman and auditor candidate Suzanne Bump.
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Top Election 2010 stories this Election Day:

More Than 2 Million Voters Expected On Election Day

WBUR reports: Candidates are making one final push, greeting voters at polling locations across the state, and there are already signs that voter turnout will be high.

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Voters today decide which candidates to send to the U.S. Capitol, here, and Beacon Hill. (theqspeaks/flickr)

It’s Election Day here in Massachusetts. Polls open within an hour, at 7 a.m., and close for the evening at 8 p.m.

Elections today are held for six statewide offices, including governor, 10 congressional seats — nine of which are contested — and 115 seats for the Massachusetts Legislature. (Here’s the full ballot.) There are also three statewide ballot questions.

Need help finding your polling place? Enter your address here.

After voting, we welcome you back here to share your experience. At what time did you vote and how long did you have to wait? How many people were at your polling place with you? What else did you see and/or hear?

• Share your voting experience in the comments

There were a lot of memorable moments this campaign season. But the award for most unmemorable presidential visit goes to... (AP)

Let’s look back on the campaign season with 21/21 hindsight.

We won’t have 20/20 hindsight until voters have their say. They always have the last say — until pundits can analyze the exit polls and explain what voters were trying to say. Regardless of election results, it is not too early to reflect on the ordeal that candidates put us through — I mean, the joy they shared with us.

In many ways, this campaign season was, to use Charlie Baker’s word in his Big Dig memo, “surreal.” There were as many memorable moments as spatchcocks at a Perdue company picnic…

Most candid candidate. Tim Cahill, independent candidate for governor and part-time state treasurer, was surprisingly forthright when he said in a radio interview: “I’m not passing myself off as a reformer or as a good government guy.” That is a good example of why “gaffe” is often defined as: a politician accidentally telling the truth.

Most transparent spin. Over a month ago, supporters of Gov. Deval Patrick’s got an e-blast from senior strategist Doug Rubin. His attempt to rationalize bad news was so absurd that even some supporters had to laugh. He wrote, “Today’s poll in the Boston Globe, showing Governor Patrick with a 1 point lead over Charlie Baker, is exactly what our campaign needs to win on November 2
 there are some out there who still need a wake up call, a reminder, about what’s at stake in this election.”

Most sincere failure. The Green-Rainbow Party candidate, Jill Stein, often said she did not want to be influenced by campaign donations. She achieved that goal by falling short of raising the $125,000 needed to qualify for up to $519,000 in public campaign funds.
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